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Bitcoin’s Price Drop: Causes from Overbought Market and High Leverage

Bearish Divergence and RSI: A critical bearish divergence was noted between Bitcoin’s price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), indicating a pronounced overbought status. This divergence significantly contributed to BTC’s failure to surpass the 100,000 USD psychological level. The inability to surpass this level raises questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trend.

P/L ratio and profit-taking activities: According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin’s profit and loss (P/L) ratio reached levels equivalent to its peak in March 2024, when BTC hit 73,400 USD. High P/L ratios are often associated with profit-taking activities by long-term investors, as increased selling pressure may be absorbed by new market entrants.

Increased funding costs and leverage: Rising funding costs are a signal that leverage positions in the futures market have become excessive. This has exacerbated Bitcoin’s price adjustment. When funding costs reached unsustainable levels and began to adjust, it set the stage for the emergence of selling forces.

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