As the Federal Open Market Committee meeting approaches on January 29, 2025, the market predicts no adjustment to the federal funds rate. The CME’s Fedwatch tool reports a HIGH 88.8% likelihood of maintaining the current rate, reflecting a cautious stance by Jerome Powell.

Polymarket and Kalshi betting platforms echo the sentiment, showcasing substantial confidence that rates will remain steady. There’s an anticipation of only two additional cuts in 2025, contrasting earlier predictions of four. This aligns with Powell’s cautious message after the 2024 cuts.