According to Polymarket, there is a 41% chance of a recession in the US by 2025. The trading platform has seen a surge in activity, with a trading volume of 352,000 USD as of March 12, 2025.

Concerns about the recession have increased due to policies executed by President Trump, including tariffs and layoffs. Economist Peter Schiff warns that the US economy is already in recession, with rising interest rates and inflation.